Bovada's Super Bowl 46 Turnovers and Fumble Prop Betting Odds
Saturday, February 04, 2012
by Bovada Sportsbook
The team that wins the turnover battle in a game almost always wins in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. Of course, there is always the exception to the rule.
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In their AFC Championship Game win over the Ravens, New England turned the ball over three times to Baltimore’s one. Thus it was remarkable that the Patriots won. Teams that were minus-two or worse in turnover differential (as the Patriots were) are 3-46 all-time in conference championship games (since 1970) prior to that game. The other two winners were the 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers and 1981 San Francisco 49ers. Teams with at least three turnovers had lost their past 22 playoff games prior New England’s win.
Bovada’s Super Bowl odds has several props when it comes to turnovers. When these two met four years ago in Super Bowl XLII, each had one turnover: an Eli Manning interception and a Tom Brady fumble (Manning did fumble twice but both were recovered by New York). The Giants, who won that game 17-14, are the -135 favorites to commit the most turnovers in this game and -125 to commit the first.
What will the first turnover be? With two pass-happy teams, an interception is the -150 favorite, with fumble at +130 and no turnovers at +700. And there have been several games without a giveaway. The over/under for total interceptions in this game is 2, with the under a -130 favorite. Manning has just one pick in three playoffs games this season, while Brady has three. Yet Manning is the -155 favorite to throw the first pick in this game. Both Manning and Brady have an over/under of .5 picks in Super Bowl XLVI.
So if there is an interception, who gets the first one? Patriots cornerback Kyle Arrington is the 13/2 favorite – he lead the NFL during the regular season with seven picks. New England’s Devin McCourty, who had two picks during the year, is next at 15/2.
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devin mccourty - eli manning - kyle arrington - tom brady
